Multi-temporal analysis of the impact of building materials price inflation on the rate of housing development in Kogi state, Nigeria

Authors

  • Joseph Obaje Ataguba Department of Estate Management and Valuation, School of Environmental Studies. The Federal Polytechnic, Idah. Author
  • Zubair Ahmed Department of Quantity Surveying, School of Environmental Studies. The federal polytechnic, Idah. Author

Keywords:

Building materials, Rate of housing development, Economic recession, Price changes, Kogi state

Abstract

With recourse to Kogi state in Nigeria, this study identified the building materials whose price changes explained the variation in the rate of housing development from the year 2008 to 2021. The methods adopted was descript-explanatory study entailed the collection of -and analysis of quantitative data comprising rate of housing development and prices of select building materials over the 14-years period, and the calibration of Log-linear regression models of the rate of housing development in the study area. The results of the rate of housing development exhibited a very weak positive correlation with changes in prices of cement, gravel, sand, and galvanized iron roofing sheets; whereas it exhibited a very weak negative correlation with changes in the prices of reinforcement bar, emulsion-, texcote-, and gloss paints respectively. In view of the choice of the first Log-linear regression model, the building materials with price changes identified to have significantly explained the variation in the rate of housing development in Kogi state over the period include Portland cement, gravel, 12mm Reinforcement Bar, emulsion- and texcote paints respectively. The theoretical contribution from the study provided insight into building materials with trajectory of price changes that might likely influence cost planning, feasibility studies, and project implementation to the benefit of developers and contractors; and the identification of variables for which price changes might likely influence lending- and default risk aversion plans of housing finance providers in the study area. The practical implications, in view of the vagaries of economic recession and inflation in Nigeria, the trend analysis of building material prices in the study area might likely assist consultants in cost planning of building projects with short- and medium term implementation schedules; whereas, the extrapolated rates of housing development based on the chosen Log-linear model drawn from the ex-post multi-temporal data might provide useful insights into the ex-ante marginal housing starts per annum, especially in the short-term.

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Published

2023-12-31

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Articles

How to Cite

Joseph Obaje Ataguba, & Zubair Ahmed. (2023). Multi-temporal analysis of the impact of building materials price inflation on the rate of housing development in Kogi state, Nigeria. Journal of Applied Ecology and Environmental Design, 2(2). https://hummingbirdjournals.com/jaeed/article/view/81

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