Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Vegetation and Crop Production (Maize and Groundnut) in Billiri/Kaltungo, Gombe State, Nigeria

Remote Sensing and GIS Approach

Abstract

This study assessed the impacts of climate change on vegetation cover, water resources, and crop production specifically maize and groundnut in Billiri and Kaltungo Local Government Areas of Gombe State, Nigeria, using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The research employed a spatial-temporal approach, integrating both primary and secondary data sources. Landsat ETM+ satellite imagery from 1986 and 2005 was processed and analyzed in ArcGIS 10.7.1 for land use/land cover classification and change detection. Ground-truthing was conducted using GPS devices, while climatic data (temperature and rainfall) and crop yield statistics were sourced from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) and Gombe State Agricultural Development Project (GADP), respectively. The findings revealed significant land cover changes over the two decades: maize and groundnut farmlands increased by 41.858 hectares and 6.537 hectares, respectively, while vegetation cover declined by 72.125 hectares. These changes were driven by both climatic factors and anthropogenic influences such as population growth, urbanization, and expanded agricultural activities. A strong positive correlation (r = 0.89) was observed between rainfall and maize yield between 1986 and 1994, whereas the correlation weakened (r = -0.317) between 1995 and 2005, reflecting the onset of climatic fluctuations. Groundnut yields exhibited continuous growth throughout the study period, with minimal sensitivity to rainfall and temperature variations, aligning with the crop’s optimal climatic thresholds. Temperature variations (29°C–33.8°C) remained within favorable ranges for both crops, indicating limited negative impact on productivity. The reduction in vegetation cover, however, reflects adverse environmental impacts, including possible pressure on water resources, though direct water resource data was limited. The study concludes that while climate change has influenced vegetation and crop production, the adaptive strategies of farmers, including early planting and use of improved crop varieties, may have mitigated negative effects. This research recommends the need for sustainable land and water resource management, as well as continued climate monitoring using geospatial technologies.