Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Crop Production in Nigeria: A Reality or Fallacy?

Abstract

Over time, climate change has significantly affected agricultural crop production, leading to food shortages in some regions of the world. Consequently, international organizations like the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) urge nations to adopt measures that mitigate the impact of climate change, supporting Sustainable Development Goal 2: ending hunger by 2030. This study investigates whether the impact of climate change on agricultural crop production in Nigeria is a reality or fallacy. Using historical data from 1960 to 2022, the study employed time series analysis to examine trends and correlation analysis to assess the relationship between climate change and crop production. Findings reveal that temperature changes significantly impact the production of rice, green corn, fresh cassava, wheat, and sorghum in Nigeria, while there is no significant relationship with millet production. Additionally, results indicate a positive relationship between adequate precipitation and crop production in Nigeria. The study concludes that climate change does indeed impact agricultural crop production in Nigeria, meaning that there are proactive measures to curb yield reductions. It recommends, among other actions, that the Ministry of Agriculture prioritize increasing crop yields by educating rural farmers on suitable crop varieties and cultivation practices aligned with climate trends.